Tuesday, March 31, 2009

No job losses after April, says Commerce Secretary

With key industrial sectors like automobile and steel showing signs of recovery, the government on Thursday said it expects arrest in further job losses in a month or two.
"I think by April end whatever job losses would be there that's the end ... no more job losses will take place," Commerce Secretary G K Pillai told reporters here.

The situation would stabilise from May onward, he said. However, Pillai said orders for exporters would pick up after the Christmas.

Automobile and steel sectors had posted a healthy growth in February. The domestic steel output went up by 2.8 per cent to 4.74 million tonnes in February.

Domestic passenger car sales went up by 21.8 per cent to 1,15,386 units in February from 94,757 units in the same month last year.

President of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations A Sakthivel last week had also expressed confidence about demand for low priced Indian merchandise reviving in the US stores from May.

Half a million jobs were lost during October-December 2008, according to the Labour Ministry estimates. The export oriented sectors such as gems and jewellery, autos, and textiles were affected the most as exports started declining since October.

Buying cars in 2009: Recession, auto industry slowdown and US bankruptcies

Thinking of buying a car, and feeling financially secure enough to pay the EMIs? This could be the best in a long time to take the plunge. Carmakers across the spectrum have cut prices by upto Rs 40,000, following the tax cut by the Unon government. The four percent cut in value-added tax was just what the doctor ordered.

The tax cut, however, did not happen in isolation. Governments across the world have been trying their best to boost sales in every sphere on the economy, where people have drastically cut back on spending. Across the world, sales of consumer goods - especially cars and homes financed by EMIs - have been declining, with mounting job losses and ?fear of potential job losses preventing consumers from taking loans.?

India has been relatively unaffected by the direct impact of the economic slowdown; however, the ripple effects are very much here. Despite the government’s sops, auto sales have declined in November by 18%.

?As demand slows down, auto makers like Tata Motors, Hyundai and Ashok Leyland have cut down production. It is unlikely that sales will rise in December either, forcing carmakers to keep prices low until the time demand picks up. In December, customers generally prefer not to buy vehicles and wait for the new year. The real impact of the tax cut, if any, will be clear in ?only by the end of January 2009. Most car launches planned for India towards the begining of 2009 have already been quietly pushed forward by ‘a few months’.

Big Three bankruptcies

Looming over the bleak economy is the potential collapse of America’s Big Three automakers - General Motors, Chrysler and Ford. If any of these companies with trancontinental operations go bust, it can spark a chain reaction, pulling down operations in numerous countries, affecting even successful rivals lke Toyota and Honda and leading to millions of jobs losses across borders.

It is true that the Indian arms of the troubled three US auto companies have been doing rather well. However, buyers tend to avoid cars which have foreign parents in trouble. ?This is because they fear a potential disruption in services and warranties if the parent companies go bankrupt. Remember what happened to the parts supply for the cute Matiz in India after its Korean parent Daewoo went bankrupt? In the US too, General Motors has - so far ?- shied away from filing for restructuring under bankruptcy, since it fears that people will not buy cars from a company under Chapter 11 protection. A bankruptcy at any of the Big Three can, in theory, force consumers to cut out that company’s cars while looking for a new set of wheels. This could be true of consumers in India as well.

The billion-dollar auto bailout

After much leading and grovelling, the US car CEOs managed to get a $15 billion loan from the US government, which they must repay by March if they fail to come up with a viable restructuring plan during that time. Simply put, they will have to cut thousands of jobs, renegotiate many contracts, abandon several car brands and get their creditors to agre to easier repayment terms. This is not going to be an easy task for the employers nor he employees, but that is the only way these companies will be able to keep their heads above water during these stormy times. And, since the loan is tied to their ability to restructure viably, a potential failure to do so can still drive them to bankruptcy.

Component companies

The auto bakruptcies can create a riple effect across nations. In India, China and Mexico, there are thousands of companies supplying a steady stream of parts - ranging from light bulbs to transmission systems - to the Big Three automakers in the US. With car sales declining in the US, these suppliers are ?already in trouble and a bankruptcy at Detroit can send hundreds of them belly-up across countries, and render additional lakhs of workers jobless. Just last financial year, India exported Rs 14,400 crore worth of components to the US alone.This year, it will be substantially less.

Now and beyond

Plus, there is the fact that in India, the effects of the slowdown are already well visible. The days of quick job-hopping are over, and so are big increments are salary hikes. Unlike the average customer in the US, Indians have always been keen on saving. With uncertainty on the horizon, the Indian customer is saving even more - and as they save more, the less they spend, leading to a further showdown in sales in all industries. It is a vicious circle, with no easy way out.

There is a silver lining in all this, though. A restructured US auto industry might turn out to be leaner and meaner. The Japanese companies are more efficient and are working towards even more efficiency, learning the right lessons from the crisis. No one expects the slowdown to last more than an year, though things would be tough in that period for sure. However, anyone who is financially secure and have plans for a car should not think twice. After the tax cut, prices for vehicles are really atractive, and dealers desperate for sales might offer even more discounts. If you are really in the market for a car, the time is perfect. And by buying one, you might even be doing your bit to keep the economy afloat!

Monday, March 30, 2009

After layoffs - Next steps for managers

The layoff announcements keep coming and are unlikely to stop anytime soon. This week,among other news, we learn Alcoa will layoff over 13,000 employees and Macy’s is closing stores. Most of the media attention focuses on the plight of those who lose their jobs. This is appropriate since those laidoff due to industry-wide economic forces have a difficult time finding new jobs, as those in the financial services industry can attest.

Another group of people with a challenge after layoffs are the managers left with the task of motivating and focusing the nervous and possibly demoralized remaining employees. Managers can act to can make the post-layoff period a time of momentum building and innovation.

1. Vision and Mission work. Every employee knows times are difficult and everyone is asking themselves the question ‘Will our organization survive?’ Don’t pretend this private questioning isn’t happening. Confront it head on with a conversation about the mission of the organization. What makes the company special? How do the economic difficulties create opportunities to re-ignite the vision? How can each employee contribute to the mission? A vision is not a luxury during a time like this. Employees are looking for a reason to believe in the future of the organization. Give them one or, even better, create one with them.

2. Invite Innovation through Flexibility. Your employees know the business as well as anyone. Give them the autonomy to help solve the organization’s challenges. Share what you know about industry headwinds and future trends. Invite your employees to find solutions or new market niches to exploit the changes in the industry.

3. Initiate new Communication Channels. Find a way to institutionalize new internal communication modes. Make it clear that employee ideas are welcome and create a new forum to report out to your employees and hear back from them. This could be a weekly video conference, a monthly meeting, a company wiki. The structure the works depends on the culture of your organization.

4. Start a new strategic planning exercise. A good strategic planning process trains participants to think strategically and think differently about their industry. If your goal is to get employees throughout the organization to innovate, then you want them to be able to innovate in a strategic manner. Initiate a strategic planning exercise as a training and employee development task. The main goal is not to create a new strategy but to get your employees to better understand the current strategy, help modify the strategy to match the new environmental constraints, or help guide their innovative thinking.

5. Build an internal expertise and knowledge development network. The destruction of informal knowledge networks is a hidden cost of any layoff. Often the informal knwoledge is not even recognized until it disappears after the layoffs. The post layoff time is ideal for building a snapshot of the expertise network within the organization and using this to identify mentors and opportunities for employee development.

The bottom line is to give employees a sense that they have some control over the future of the organization and that the future of the organization is strong. Since the recent past of the organization did not go so well, the only way to create some positive momentum is to take real, visible action demonstrating why the future will be different.

Levy sends layoff notices to 2,200 Suffolk workers

County Executive Steve Levy sent out layoff notices to 2,200 county employees Friday and agreed to use $30 million from the county's rainy day fund to equal what he is seeking in union concessions.

The 60-day warnings, which went out by letter, are sent to a far larger number than the 386 positions on the layoff list because the county also must notify those who would move to lower job titles under the county's bump and retreat system.

Cheryl Felice, president of the Association of Municipal Employees, called the notices "completely inappropriate intimidation" since no layoff proposal has been approved or has even gotten out of the county legislative committee.

"It's classic abuser behavior," said Felice, "Management is trying to bully union members into accepting concessions prior to Mr. Levy proving his case."

"If she's suggesting that we not send out these notices, she would be asking us to the violate the law," said Levy. "Cheryl continues to place her upcoming election as a priority over protecting her membership, which understands that a lag payroll is far more humane than layoffs."

In meetings Friday, Levy agreed to add $5 million to the $25 million he'd earlier agreed to use from the county's $130 million rainy day fund. An aide said he also agreed to alter his existing resolution to set out major parts of his fiscal plan to solve the $119 million 2009 shortfall.

"We're making progress," said Presiding Officer William Lindsay (D-Holbrook). "Last week, he was only willing to use $13 million." He added, "It would do a world of good if everyone saw all the pieces in one document."

The county executive originally asked for the power to do layoffs if the unions did not agree to $30 million in concessions by April 1. Levy changed the measure to remove the "concession" language after key ally Legis. Louis D'Amaro (D- North Babylon) recused himself from the vote because his wife, county attorney Christine Malafi, would be affected by the proposal.

While Levy has asked for a special legislature meeting April 1, Lindsay has said he sees no need because Levy's proposal is still in committee. Dan Aug, Levy's spokesman, said they are weighing whether to seek a special committee meeting at which D'Amaro now could vote on the stripped-down layoff bill.

The presiding officer, however, said he sees no reason for pressing for action before the April 28 meeting. "There's no difference if it's the April 1 or April 28," he said, referring to the layoff notices. "The clock is already ticking on the layoffs."

Keystone RV layoffs begin April 3

Goshen-based Keystone RV said today it will move foreword with the previously announced closure of three northeast Indiana motor-home manufacturing facilities beginning April 3.

In a letter to the Indiana Department of Workforce Development, Keystone said it will permanently close two plants in Goshen and one in Howe. The closures will begin April 3, with 103 employees terminated. The company said it will lay off another 80 employees April 17 and conclude with 82 employees terminated May 1.

On Feb. 2, Keystone announced its plan to consolidate manufacturing facilities and lay off 350 workers, or 15 percent of the company's total work force, as part of its effort to improve efficiencies.

Keystone's plants in Goshen are located at 2775 and 2642 Hackberry Drive, and its Howe plant is located at 7605 N. SR 9.

McClatchy layoff info

Here is the current layoff info as of March 19, 2009 (includes info from Anchorage Daily News)

Alaska

Anchorage Daily News
47 employees to be laid off, wage cuts effective April 13, 2009 (details about cuts not yet announced), possible furloughs 2nd half of 2009.

California

The Fresno Bee:
Total layoffs at the paper = 63. The Guild voted 3/10/09 to support management's plan to lay off 16 full time and 5 part time employees in the bargaining unit. Pay cuts (effective April 13, 2009), furlough option, vacation changes.

salary under $35,000 = no cut
$35,000-$59,999 = 4% cut
$60,000-$89,999 = 6% cut

(More here and here.)

Merced Sun-Star:
10 positions eliminated, wage cuts

The Modesto Bee:
Total of 40 positions eliminated. The Guild voted 3/9/09 to accept management's proposal of 11 layoffs in the bargaining unit. Unpaid furloughs second half of 2009. Pay cuts (not sure when they take effect):

under $25,000 = no cut
$25,000-$34,999 = 2% cut
$35,000-$49,999 = 3% cut
$50,000-$64,999 = 5% cut
$65,000-$99,999 = 7.5% cut
$100,000 + = 10% cut

The Sacramento Bee:
The Guild voted 3/6/09 to accept management's proposal to lay off 34 employees in the bargaining unit, implement pay cuts (effective April 13, 2009), possible unpaid furlough in second half of 2009, and vacation accrual changes. Total employees laid off = 128.

salary under $25,000 = no cut
$25,000 - $50,000 = 3% cut
$50,000 or above = 6% cut

(More at the Guild's web site here.)

San Luis Obispo Tribune
3 laid off by end of March, 4 additional layoffs when some financial functions are outsourced to Fresno Bee, wage cuts

Florida

The Miami Herald
175 employees will lose their jobs, another 30 vacant positions will be eliminated, unpaid furloughs starting in April, wage cuts. The Herald to lease one floor of its building.

under $25,000 = no cut
$25,000 - $50,000 = 5% cut
$50,000 + = 10% cut


Georgia

Ledger-Enquirer (Columbus)
20 positions eliminated (includes 13 vacant positions), wage cuts for those making over $26,000 - cuts range from 2.5% to 8%. (more here)

The Telegraph (Macon)
18 positions eliminated (some through attrition), wage cuts for employees making over $25,000 (2.5% to 10%). 58 positions already eliminated when printing operations were moved to Columbus.

Idaho

Idaho Statesman (Boise)

25 positions, wage cuts, unpaid furloughs

under $25,000 = no cuts
$25,999 - $49,999 = 3% cut
$50,000 - $99,000 = 6% cuts
$100,000 + = 10% cut

Illinois

Belleville News-Democrat
30 positions eliminated (includes 12 p.t. and 3 vacant positions), wage cuts for employees making over $25,000

Kansas

Wichita Eagle:
14 positions eliminated, wage cuts

Missouri

Kansas City Star:
Will eliminate about 150 positions, implement wage cuts effective April 20. Publisher says more information later.

under $100,000 = 5% cut (plus or minus)
over $100,000 = 10% cut

North Carolina

The News & Observer
78 layoffs, wage cuts, unpaid furloughs beginning in May.

under $25,000 = no cut
$25,000 - $49,999 = 2.5% cut
$50,000 - $99,999 = 5% cut
$100,000 + = 10% cut

South Carolina

The Herald (Rock Hill):
6 positions eliminated, wage cuts. Printing operations have already been transferred to Charlotte.

under $25,000 = no cut
$25,000 or more = 2.5% to 10% cut

The Island Packet (Blufton) and Beaufort Gazette:
17 positions eliminated (8 of which were open), wage reductions (5 to 10%), hourly employees cut back from 40 hours to 37.5 hours. Possible unpaid furloughs.

The State (Columbia):
38 layoffs (including 3 VPs), wage reductions

The Sun News (Myrtle Beach):
20 Layoffs, 9.1% wage reductions, 37.5 hours per week effective 5/4/09. (More here and here.) An additional 58 positions were eliminated with the transfer of printing operations to Charleston.


Texas

Fort Worth Star-Telegram:
12% of employees laid off (approx. 130 employees), wage reductions (see below), some voluntary buyouts, reduced hours for operational employees.

Wage reductions (effective with 4/24/09 paycheck):
under $25,000 = no cut
$25,000 - $49,999 = 2.5% cut
$50,000 - $99,999 = 5% cut
over $100,000 = 10% cut (more info here)

Washington

The Bellingham Herald (Washington):
Layoff 8 full-time positions and 2 part-time, totaling 10 people.

under $25,000 = no cut
$25,000-$50,000 = 2.5% cut
$50,000 or more = 5% cut (More here.)
Building is up for sale.

The News Tribune (Tacoma, Washington)
30 layoffs, wage cuts, possible unpaid furloughs 2nd half of 2009 under $25,000 = no cuts

under $25,000 = no cut
$25,000 - $100,000 = 5% cut
$100,000 + = 10% cut

The Olympian
15 layoffs, wage cuts

Tri-City Herald (Washington):
Lay off 3 employees, possible furloughs, wage reductions.

under $25,000 = no cut
$25,000 to $49,999 = 2.5% cut
$50,000 or more = 5% cut

McClatchy Interactive:
9 positions eliminated (6 through attrition), wage reductions.

under $50,000 = 3.5% cut
$50,000 - $100,000 = 5% cut
over $100,000 = 10% cut
.
If you have more info, leave it in comments.

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American Airlines plans to lay off 469 workers at US airports

As a part of its continuing efforts at downsizing flights, American Airlines, headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas, the United States, has sent notices of possible layoffs to 469 employees at airports in 5 cities in the United States.

These employees may lose their jobs by November 1, 2008, as the airline cuts back on its schedule in the face of high oil prices and a weakening economy.

The hardest-hit by the proposed layoffs would be the workforce at American Airlines’ second-biggest hub, O’Hare International Airport in Chicago, the United States, where 353 employees have received the layoff notices. The company has also notified 53 airport employees in Los Angeles; 28 in San Francisco; 27 in Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina; and 8 employees in Columbus, Ohio.

The letters of possible layoffs were sent to gate and ticket agents, ramp workers, automotive mechanics, and airport-based management and support staff, a press release from American Airlines said.

American Airlines has not yet sent notices to mechanics and other maintenance employees.

The press release added: “The sending of notices to employees follows the capacity reductions the company is implementing to remain competitive in the industry. Unfortunately, those reductions require a reduction in jobs as well.”

Mark Burdette, vice-president (employee relations) of American Airlines, had said in a letter sent to the Transport Workers Union a week ago: “Fewer people would be needed to operate the airline as the operating schedule is cut due to high oil pries and the softening economy. This reality has forced us to make some very tough, but immediate, decisions to secure American Airlines’ future. We must quickly reduce our operating schedule for the coming months, and as a result, will need fewer people to operate the airline.”

American Airlines had earlier announced that it intended to cut about 1,300 hourly jobs and 200 management and support positions in its maintenance and engineering division. Overall, over 6,000 jobs will be eliminated at the airline by the end of 2008 as it downsizes by 8%.

American Airlines is the world’s largest airline in total passengers-miles transported and passenger fleet size; the second largest airline in terms of aircraft operated; and the second-largest airline company in the world (behind Air France-KLM) in terms of total operating revenues. A wholly owned subsidiary of the AMR Corporation, American Airlines operates scheduled flights throughout the United States, as well as flights to Canada, Latin America, the Caribbean, Europe, Japan, China, and India.

American Airlines likely to lay off 410 flight attendants by April 1, 2009

American Airlines, based in Fort Worth, Texas, the United States, says it is planning to lay off up to 410 flight attendants on April 1, 2009, “unless the carrier can get, by March 6, 2009, sufficient number of volunteers to take leaves, early departures or other steps to reduce their ranks.”

The media quoted a spokeswoman of American Airlines as saying that “the potential furloughs are the result of less attrition than usual” and that “furloughs would be based on reverse seniority.”

She added that the airline expecting to get adequate number of volunteers by January 2009 to prevent layoffs, but owing to the economic depression, American Airlines did not get the normal requests for short-term leaves, retirements or resignations.

More and more people, according to American Airlines, are opting to remain employed longer rather than start their retirement.

American Airlines has 17,200 active flight attendants, including 88 flight attendants based at Raleigh-Durham International Airport, North Carolina, the United States.

The spokeswoman, however, said flight attendants based at Raleigh-Durham International Airport were unlikely to be affected by the furloughs, or a temporary leave of absence, that American Airlines plans for April.

The Association of Professional Flight Attendants had told its members a week ago that it learned of the imminent layoffs from Lauri Curtis, American Airlines’ vice-president of flight service.

American Airlines, a wholly owned subsidiary of the AMR Corporation, had offered leaves of absence and travel privileges for those quitting as well as job-sharing arrangements. The airline said it was resorting to furloughs as a part of its efforts to cope with the global economic recession.

MASS LAYOFFS IN FEBRUARY 2009

Employers took 2,769 mass layoff actions in February that resulted in the separation of 295,477 workers, seasonally adjusted, as measured by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits during the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Each action involved at least 50 persons from a single employer. The number of mass layoff events in February increased by 542 from the prior month, while the number of associated initial claims increased by 57,575. Over the year, the number of mass layoff events increased by 1,100, and the associated initial claims increased by 112,439. In February, 1,235 mass layoff events were reported in the manufacturing sector, seasonally adjusted, resulting in 152,618 initial claims. Over the month, mass layoff events in manufacturing increased by 497, and initial claims increased by 50,041. (See table 1.) Layoff events for all industries and for the manufacturing sector rose to their highest levels on record, with data available back to 1995.

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Friday, March 27, 2009

How to Survive a Layoff - Ways

If you’ve been laid off recently, you’re certainly in good company. While that might provide some small consolation, you still want to set a target for yourself and start working towards future goals. You’ll want to make sure you leave on good terms, start looking for a new job in productive ways and also stay sane.

Be Prepared

When job cuts mean that your own days at the office are numbered, you may just want to laugh the whole situation off. During the dot.com layoffs of 2001–2002, a writer for Bankrate.com reported that he and co-workers cracked jokes every day about the visit from HR, until the representative actually arrived. While finally getting the news may be a relief of sorts, there are several technical details that you’ll want to remember in the event of your layoff.

For example, do you need to discuss your stock options with your employer? Will you keep the money in your 401K for your retirement or take it out now? Do you have any vacation pay that’s owed to you? Is it possible to negotiate for a bit more time on the company health insurance? If you’re expecting a layoff, these are things you can think about in advance, but make sure you have time to ask questions, or can contact your employer at a later date.

When the moment arrives, a Fortune magazine columnist advises you to stay composed and clear-headed at all costs. Try not to take your situation personally, and you’ll be able to focus on negotiating the best possible severance deal.

Review your personal finances. Gail Marks Jarvis, investment blogger for the Chicago Tribune, offers preparation tips for a possible layoff, as well as the first moves you should make post-layoff. Start by revising you budget, bearing in mind that it might take a while to find a new job. You still need to keep trying to pay off your credit cards, so it’s a good idea to stop using them if it all possible. You may also have to sell some of your possessions. (Be honest, how badly do you really need that Wii?)

Finding a New Job

Your first instinct after being laid off may be to hit the bar with some coworkers, and that’s fine, but once you’ve had time to process the news, it’s time to get cracking on the employment hunt. The Scobleizer blog reminds you to spend at least 30 percent of your day, every day, searching for a new job. And that means more than just scrolling the pages at Monster.com or Craigslist. Before you even start sending out resumes, you can start to identify yourself as a great candidate. You’ll need to be aggressive, and creative. Start a blog that demonstrates the skills you have. Use your blog to connect with others in your field.

A posting from the SF Microsoft Office Examiner claims that 80 percent of jobs come from networking. While it’s not a great time to be begging people for jobs, there’s never a bad time to ask someone to meet with you and talk about what they do. The more informational interviews you go on, the more you learn and the more connections you make. When jobs do surface, you’ll be at the forefront of people’s minds, putting you at a serious advantage.

If you work in media or technology, display your qualifications online. That means deleting pictures of you and your drunk friends from Facebook and ensuring that “your blog is your calling card,” the Scobleizer blog advises. You may want to cultivate a Twitter identity that makes you look like a thoughtful, professional and then follow potential employers on Twitter. When you’re offline, attend events in your field.

Keeping Your Sanity

There is no way to skirt around the fact that getting laid off is traumatic. Although you shouldn’t treat a layoff like a vacation, you can take some time to become a more well-balanced person. Try becoming more physically active—even if the layoff means canceling your gym membership. There are plenty of ways to get fit without paying gym fees. Play with your dog, do some crunches while watching TV or take up a team sport.

You might be surprised to learn that you can improve your health a great deal by gardening. Plus, joining a community garden will save you a bit on groceries. The American Community Garden Association can help you locate a nearby garden, or even start your own.

If you don’t have a green thumb, try another kind of volunteer work. Chances are, the talents you used at work will be invaluable to a charity organization, and you may even find you have a knack for something you were unaware of, such as mentoring a child. Use the findingDulcinea Web Guide to Philanthropy and Nonprofits to help you locate volunteering opportunities.

10 tips to survive a layoff, financially

Tough people last, tough times don't, right?

And tough times indeed are upon those Jet Airways [Get Quote] employees who were laid off recently and also for others who fear their turn is coming soon.

In times of recession companies do pare their staff strength to improve their profits. They are accountable to their shareholders and stakeholders.

Similarly, if you are a sacked employee or fear that you may get a pink slip in times to come, isn't it time you become accountable to yourself and think what next instead of cribbing about the fate that has befallen upon you?

Here's what you can do to survive your layoff / expected layoff, financially.

1. Negotiate with your employer to get a good severance package.

In the case of the Jet Airways employees it is reported that the company is willing to pay them a year's salary. This can indeed be good news if it is true.

If you too are laid off negotiate aggressively with your employer. After all, you are already sacked and they can do you no more harm. But remember to keep your aggression polite for the same employer may want to hire you when wheels of fortune turn. Never slap an opportunity, ever!

Getting to hard numbers let's assume that a company A sacks 10 per cent of its employees and promises to pay 12-months' salary in advance. Also, let's assume that on an average these employees earn Rs 20,000 per month. This will help them get Rs 2,40,000 in advance. This amount if planned and spent productively can help them cope financially till the time they get another job.

2. If you have a debt of any kind -- home loan, personal loan, credit card payment etc -- make provision for that first from the money that you can squeeze out from your ex-employer. There is no point in defaulting on your debt as it may come to hound you later -- via your credit rating -- when your financial condition improves.

For those who fear a layoff in the near future it would be a wise decision to payoff their dues when the going is good rather than waiting till the last moment. Also, postpone your decisions to buy a home or borrow money for some other purpose.

However, if you are neck deep in debt then it would be better that you seek advice from a debt counselor. Bank of India's Abhay, ICICI Bank's Abhay helps people with financial counseling and how to cope with debt.

3. In the meanwhile, try to search for job, even if on a temporary basis, matching your skills and profile. Don't hesitate to compromise on salary as your topmost priority should be keeping the engine well-oiled so when the real opportunity knocks you can race ahead of the others.

There are Web sites like Jobs On Temp that list a number of temporary jobs available in various sectors. You can also look out for India's best cities for 'temp' jobs in case you are open to moving out from where you last worked or are working right now.

4. Your next priority should be your grocery expenses. You have to eat to survive and be shipshape to go out in search of another job. Visit your nearest discount stores and check who sells your items of daily need cheaper. This exercise may help you save some dimes but if you are laid off or fear a layoff every penny should count.

5. There is no need to tell you that when you are laid off or are expecting the same you should come down heavily on your socialising expenses including outings to hotels, multiplexes, vacations et al.

6. Try asking your parents and friends for some money in case your severance package amount fails to meet your monthly expenses. After all, a friend in need is a friend indeed. Of course, your parents, if they are financially sound, wouldn't think twice about helping you with money. Make it a point to ask your parents first for money. For borrowing money from your friends can sometimes spoil a friendship.

7. If your severance package is good make sure that you keep at least 20 per cent of this money into an emergency fund. Put this amount in a fixed deposit that will earn you at least 7 to 8 per cent post tax. Due to rising interest rates most banks are offering attractive fixed deposit rates. Also, this amount will come in handy in case of any medical emergency. Of course, you will have to forego the interest amount if you withdraw your fixed deposit before the tenure is over.

8. If charity begins at home, cost cutting too should begin from home. Ask your maid to take a break for three months or till the time you find a new job. It is better you start doing your own laundry, utensils and ironing. You may feel a bit odd in the beginning but the amount you will save every month will come as a huge relief.

9. Spend most of your time fine tuning your resume, preparing for interviews, adding new skill sets related to your job profile (at lower cost if possible, but without any compromise) and networking with people (both online and offline). This will not only help you find a new job but also keep you busy and away from any mischief.

10. Finally, don't forget to make a plan about your future as you will have enough time to ponder over your finances and career. Take a hard look at what you would want to do in life and how your career is shaping up. Make sure that such an eventuality should not ever befall you and if at all it does then you should not struggle as much as you struggled during your first layoff.

Hi readers have any experience in layoff you can share here. contact sendmailtomurugan@gmail.com

How To Survive a Layoff - Tips

  1. Keep getting up in the morning. You will find another job. Remember, you have skills!
  2. Contact your state unemployment office immediately to get the typical waiting period out of the way of your checks.
  3. Update and polish your resume.
  4. Start searching for a new job right away.
  5. Submit your updated resume to several job sites, to let employers come to you.
  6. Apply to receive job notification by email at job sites that offer it, to let the jobs come to you, too.
  7. Contact your references to let them know you're back in the job market and counting on them.
  8. Ask your ex-boss to write a recommendation letter that also explains why job loss wasn't your fault.
  9. Practice interviewing while you have the time and to keep your confidence level up.
  10. Attend outplacement seminars if offered.
  11. Consider temping until you find a permanent job.

Tips:

  1. You might be able to negotiate a better severance package with your HR department. Ask them about jobs, too. There might still be mission-critical openings to which your skills transfer.
  2. To avoid worry and depression, keep your mind busy and make yourself feel useful by working on your house, car, yard, hobbies, etc.
  3. It could be the best thing that ever happened to you. For example, now might be a good time for that career change, training or self-employment you've been contemplating, but never had the time.

Surviving a layoff with your savings intact

The layoffs that you've been hearing so much about have swept through your company. You've been booted from your cubicle. You're out of a job.

It's financial crunch time. So act like it. It's time to get serious about the money you have and the money you won't have once that final paycheck gets cashed.

Don't leave empty-handed
First off, you want to make that last paycheck as big as possible. Negotiate the best possible severance package that you can. Work the guilt.

"If you've been a good employee, they probably feel a little bit guilty," says Ginita Wall, a certified financial planner and co-founder of the Women's Institute for Financial Education. "Try to get some sort of golden parachute."

Ask for everything you can. Ask for more money, for continued use of a company car, for help with health care coverage. You won't get anything if you don't ask. So speak up. It's worth a shot.

Don't forget to apply for unemployment.

"You've paid for it. You may as well use it," Wall says.

Who couldn't use an extra couple hundred dollars a month after a job ends?

"If you walked by a couple of hundred dollar bills lying on the ground you'd pick them up. It's not just peanuts," Wall says.

Time for a cash diet
The next step is poring over your budget. It's time to make some serious adjustments.

"Really take a cold, hard look at what you've got coming in," says Howard Dvorkin of Consolidated Credit Counseling Services in Fort Lauderdale, Fla.

Also take a look at what money is going out and why. Decide what monthly expenses you can live without. Do you really need call waiting and three-way calling on your phone? What about all those extra cable channels on your TV?

"Look at your budget and cut back all unnecessary expenses," Dvorkin says.

"You'll be amazed at how thrifty you can get," says Catherine Williams, vice president of financial literacy for Money Management International."There's just tons of things we can do without."

Prioritize your bills. Make a list of monthly expenses that absolutely have to be paid. Topping the list should be your mortgage or rent, followed by utility bills, auto payments and insurance bills.

"We never want anybody to stop paying insurance. Because when they do that's when they have an accident," Williams says.

And don't forget about food. Everyone has to eat, although you should probably pass on any fancy restaurant dinners for a while.

You'll also want to keep paying on your credit card bills even if it's just minimum payments. If you're unable to pay a bill, contact the creditor as soon as possible. Don't wait until you're late.

"Always call before the payment is due. Creditors have more tools available to them before you miss a payment than after you miss a payment," Williams says.

Follow up the phone call with a letter.

"In a short, simple, less than a paragraph note, tell them what happened and ultimately what you want to do," Williams says.

"If you say 'What can you do for me,' they'll say 'Make your regular payments.' Have a number in mind that you can meet."

Say your minimum credit card payment is $50. Offer to pay $30 instead. Be realistic and be sure to pay this amount by the due date.

Emergency calls
If you've got an emergency fund, this is the time to raid it. "This is the emergency you've been saving for," Williams says. "This is the rainy day."

Liquidate low-interest earning investments such as money market funds and certificates of deposit. You may also want to sell stocks and mutual funds. The aim is to free up as much cash as possible to make up for the paychecks you won't be getting for awhile.

Think twice about cashing out a 401(k) or other retirement account. This is not the place to look for quick cash. Tapping into a retirement account should be an absolute last resort."You're going to owe taxes. You're going to owe penalties," Wall says. "People should consider working part-time rather than tapping your retirement account."

Just say no to those little plastic cards. This is not the time to charge up your credit cards. "You must, must cut down and completely avoid using your credit card," Dvorkin says. "Unfortunately, most people do just the opposite. They start using credit cards to live."

Try living off stockpiled goods, instead. Chances are, you've got more food in your pantry and more clothes in your closet than you realize. "Clean out the pantry. Make a meal out of what you find there instead of going out for a hamburger," Wall says.

Really take a look around your place. Do some digging. You may be surprised at what you find. There may be enough for a good garage sale.

"Have a garage sale," Williams says. "That generates a couple hundred bucks no matter what."

Waiting for the shoe to drop?
What about people who are employed but worried that a layoff may be headed their way?

Start building up an emergency fund. Most experts suggest stashing away three to six months living expenses. Do the best you can.

One way to free up more cash is by reducing your contributions to your retirement account.

Avoid making any big purchases. Rein in daily expenses as well. It could be something as simple as taking a packed lunch to work.

Homeowners may want to apply for home equity lines of credit. It will be much tougher to qualify for a loan once you've lost a job. So get a line now just in case you'll need one later.

A good strategy for two-income families is to try to make ends meet on one salary. The second salary could be socked away into savings.

"It's easier said than done," Dvorkin says. "But at the end of the year you'll feel a whole lot better."

How To Survive A Layoff

With the exception of being let go from a retail position after a store closing when I was in college, I have never been on the receiving end of a layoff. However, I was unfortunate enough to have to deliver the news to team members who worked with me at my last job, and it was one of the most unpleasant experiences I have ever had to deal with at work. Through their painful experiences I have been able to gather a few tips for surviving a layoff.
Sink or Swim

I personally don’t believe in layoffs because I am sort of a “sink or swim” kind of guy. When an employee devotes their time and energy to a company they deserve some loyalty in return. Sink or swim, employees and companies should be in it together. Unfortunately, corporate America is mostly concerned with bottom lines, so they frequently take the opportunity to “weed out” employees who earn too much, produce too little, or are nearing retirement benefits. If “dead wood” exists in an organization it should be dealt with individually, but not by taking otherwise hardworking casualties along with them as part of a massive layoff. OK, enough of my rant, back to surviving a layoff.
Keep Your Ear to the Ground

If your company has announced a round of layoffs it means there are storm clouds on the horizon, regardless of how secure you may feel about your particular job. If you are lucky enough to be notified ahead of time, use this advanced warning to your advantage. Put your financial turnaround on hold and quickly begin stockpiling cash. Here are a few ideas to guide you though this most difficult event:

Pay minimums on ALL debt, nothing extra. It is important not to get behind with storm clouds on the horizon, so continue to stay current on all debt accounts. If you were making additional debt snowball payments, suspend those temporarily until the storm clouds have passed, or until you have found another job.

Pile up cash in an emergency fund. Using the debt snowball amount you were previously paying on that smallest debt as a starting place, throw every single dollar you can find in an emergency fund. Have a yard sale, sell stuff on eBay, and look for some quick-to-hire part time work. This emergency fund will have to sustain your family until you can find new employment, a period that could take weeks, or even months.

Negotiate. When you get your pink slip, negotiate as many benefits as you possibly can before your exit interview is over. Don’t be satisfied to just get a promise of a good reference and any unpaid vacation. Companies, especially large companies, want to make this as smooth a transition as possible to limit any negative publicity. Use that to your advantage and ask for an extension of health coverage, or additional paid weeks per year of service. Work any angle you can to maximize your severance package. Remember, you have a family to feed! Don’t worry about appearing ungrateful, or making anyone mad. What’s the worst they could do - fire you?

Use severance funds first, then the emergency fund. It isn’t easy dealing with a drastic drop in income. Consider depositing severance funds in a separate savings account and set up biweekly withdrawals in roughly the same amount as your previous take home pay. You can set this up with ING Direct. Do not touch this money for any reason other than living expenses and perhaps some small job hunt expenses (travel, new suit, etc.), and in that case be extremely frugal. Remember, this money supply is finite. If you get frivolous now because you feel sorry for yourself you will be broke in no time and find yourself feeling even worse.

Find a new job, and fast. Now is not a time to sit around having a pity party. Get out there and find a new job. Work your network of friends and family. Update your resume and submit using a service such as Resume Rabbit™. Keep in touch with other colleagues who have been rehired and ask them for any leads. Brush up on your interview skills. Learn what not to do in an interview. Treat this job search as your full time job. Sure, it would be fun to take a couple weeks off to rest and relax, but you can’t afford it. The faster you find a job the less you have to use of your severance money, making what’s left a nice bonus towards your financial turnaround.

When employed again use any remaining severance and emergency fund stockpiles to pay off debt, down to the original amount of your beginner emergency fund. Now is not the time to blow money to celebrate. If anything, this experience should have taught you a valuable lesson - there is no such thing as job security. In an ever-changing global economy filled with uncertainty, any work could dry up in an instant leaving you unemployed. There is no better time to get out of debt, build your emergency savings and work towards financial independence.

Have any of you experienced a layoff in your immediate family? Any tips you can share with other readers on surviving a layoff?

Victims of the tech wreck: Life after layoffs for seven dot-commers

They came from all walks of life seeking all sorts of rewards. Some were risk-takers hoping to be a part of a business revolution. Others simply wanted to try something new. More than a couple were looking to make a quick buck in a hot industry.

Now, seven laid-off dot-commers -- a public relations director, software tester, salesman, office manager, technology guru, facilities manager and Web site editor -- talk about life after the Internet bubble has burst.

Losing your job is never easy. But the way it is handled varies from person to person.

Some, such as former HomeGrocer.com and Bidpath public relations director Stacy Drake, are rolling with the punches, enjoying their time off and looking for the next opportunity.

Others, such as Ken Wiens, a 48-year-old father of two, are struggling to find work and considering going back to school.

And others, such as 28-year-old Shelley Rossi, have retreated from the technology world altogether.

"I took my chance. I did my risky thing," says Rossi, a former Web site editor who turned down an offer at a second Internet company for a more stable job in real estate.

Since May, more than 7,200 people have lost their jobs in the state's technology sector. Here are seven of their stories.

Shelly Rossi
ePods.com
Age: 28
Position: Web site editor
Laid off: June

After being laid off from Internet appliance maker ePods last summer, Shelley Rossi was so distraught that she sat down at her personal computer and penned a 625-word essay about her experiences in the Internet industry.

Called "Easydot.com, Easydot.go," it was her way of dealing with the pain of losing a job she loved.

"So here I am, an ex-dot-commer, laid off in a companywide downsizing due to financial cutbacks," she wrote. "Am I bitter? Absolutely not. Do I regret it? Never. Even if it was for only a short time, I was an integral part of something new and exciting. Something that gave me as much, if not more, than what I was able to give it."

Being laid off was like a "family being split apart," she says. More than 100 people lost their jobs when the developer of handheld Internet appliances shut down last year.

But the 28-year-old quickly bounced back from the experience. Even though ePods did not provide a severance package, executives at the company helped her land a three-month contract assignment at Nordstrom.com a week after she was let go. She was offered a full-time position at the online retailer. But Rossi -- having cleansed herself of the Internet bug -- decided to turn down the offer.

"I feel great about what I did and that I took the risk," she says about her eight-month foray into the Internet world. "But you know how it is after you get burned. Even though I don't feel the experience was negative, I said, 'Do I really want to put myself in a position again where I could be laid off?'"

So in September, one month after getting married, she decided to find a job that was a little more "stable" and "structured." After several job offers, she settled on a public relations position at John L. Scott Real Estate in Bellevue.

Rossi, who filled out four W2 forms this tax season, says she is happy not to be working for a dot-com. "I guess you could say I was ready to join the real world again."

Stacy Drake
Homegrocer.com
Age: 32
Position: Public relations director
Laid off: Dec. 15

Stacy Drake has the unique distinction of being laid off from two dot-coms in 49 days.

"I think I might have some honor here," admits Drake, who was let go from HomeGrocer.com in December and then online auction start-up Bidpath in early February.

Despite what many would see as bad luck, Drake doesn't seem too worried about the strange turn of events. She has spent recent days completing her tax forms, reading books, sewing and weeding the garden. But she has cut back on at least one favorite pastime.

"My first instinct was to go shopping. But then I thought I better conserve my severance," Drake says.

She is trying to remain upbeat, distancing her personal situation from what she reads in the newspaper.

"(Being laid off) is not the worst thing that has ever happened to me," she says. "Do I feel good enough to join another start-up? Maybe not. But I am not so burned that I would never again look at an Internet start-up."

Anyway, there are benefits to being laid off by two companies in less than two months. Unlike many dot-commers, Drake is comfortably sitting on two severance packages. She now jokes with friends that it would be a great time to be nine months' pregnant.

Drake says the layoffs were handled well at both firms. But being let go from HomeGrocer.com was harder because most people knew the cuts were coming six months in advance.

"It was hard to be in that limbo. That was kind of frustrating," says Drake, who was one of hundreds of HomeGrocer.com employees laid off after Webvan purchased the company in June.

At Bidpath, where she was one of about a dozen people to lose their jobs, there was no warning of the impending ax. When Drake arrived on a Monday afternoon last month to clean out her desk, she says she was treated well by executives. "There wasn't anyone standing over me as I boxed up my stuff. I was able to log on to my computer. It wasn't an icky feeling, let's just put it that way," she says.

Now that Drake is moving on, she is cautiously optimistic about the future.

"Check back with me in three months," Drake says. "If I don't have a job, this won't be a good thing."

Ken Weins
Sierra Online
Age: 48
Position: Software tester
Laid off: December

Finding work has not been easy for Ken Wiens, who lost his job at Bellevue computer game maker Sierra Online a week before Christmas in a companywide restructuring that affected 54 people. The father of two grown children, whose wife works in medical records at Overlake Hospital in Bellevue, has interviewed with half a dozen firms during the past four months with little luck.

Things seemed to be picking up last month when he received two calls from job placement agencies and had one lengthy interview with a local company. But he says nothing "concrete has come through yet."

"I turn 49 next month, and I am beginning to wonder if it makes a difference when (the employers) see the gray hairs," says Wiens, who is collecting unemployment and is coming to the end of his severance pay.

Getting laid off has brought out mixed emotions.

At times, the self-described poet says he feels like his 20-year-old son who works at Trader Joe's and is struggling to figure out his career path.

"You kind of feel useless, but then you think of all the different opportunities out there, too," he says.

While Wiens is a Microsoft Certified Professional and has spent more than 10 years in high-tech, he says he needs more skills to make it in the ever-changing technology world. He is especially interested in learning more about Visual Basic, one of the programming languages used in creating Windows applications.

So, on March 12, Wiens is going back to school through a government-supported program that pays for tuition, textbooks and certification tests. The five-month program at Bellevue Community College will retrain Wiens to become a network administrator with skills to maintain and oversee personal computer networks. It was not his first choice. But it is better than letting technology pass you by, he says.

Still, if Wiens was offered a job before the first class there is no question what he would do. "If something came up in the next two weeks, I would go for it," he says.

Kacey Hawker
Drivewire.com
Age: 38
Position: Office manager
Laid off: May

Undergoing back surgery is bad enough. Not having your company pay for it is downright frightening.

While Kacey Hawker only spent three months working in the Internet field, those 90 days have caused tremendous pain, emotional stress and financial setbacks.

Hawker's dot-com nightmare started a couple of months after joining Bellevue online automobile parts retailer drivewire.com.

Soon after being hired in March, Hawker was stricken with back pain and told by her doctors that surgery was necessary to repair a slipped disk.

A week before the back surgery, drivewire.com managers notified Hawker that she would be laid off for four weeks and recalled later in the summer.

What managers failed to tell her was that they had stopped paying her health insurance.

After a successful surgery, Hawker was planning to return to drivewire.com in August when on July 18 she received a letter from Premera/Blue Cross -- her health insurance company -- saying she was not covered at the time of the surgery. Facing a $25,000 medical bill and "financial devastation," Hawker panicked.

"That is when my world was rocked. I had to sit down. It was like the wind had been knocked out of me," she says.

Hawker later discovered that drivewire.com had not made health-care payments since April for her or her fellow employees. She also learned that Premera/Blue Cross pre-authorized the back surgery even though drivewire.com was past due on payments.

Hawker, who was never brought back to work at the struggling company, contacted a couple of lawyers but each wanted a significant retainer, something the unemployed single woman could not afford. She then turned to the Washington State Insurance Commissioner's office, which helped her sort out the mess and negotiate a deal with Premera/Blue Cross to pay part of the bill. Although she now owes $7,000 in medical fees, she is glad the ordeal is behind her.

Hawker returned to her original employer -- Bothell fitness equipment manufacturer Precor -- in August. She now says her short hop into the Internet world will be her "first and last" and the entire experience has left her feeling "kind of numb."

Jeff Coe
Docutouch
Age: 34
Position: Sales
Laid off: Feb. 5

Just a couple of months into his job at DocuTouch, salesman Jeff Coe knew the Seattle start-up was in trouble.

In December, the 3-year-old Internet company cut salaries by 10 percent, eliminated free parking and told staffers that the main service -- a digital signature technology -- was not gaining ground with customers.

"They were spending stupidly, spending $30,000 a month on airline advertisements before the (in-flight) movie," recalls Coe.

But it wasn't until the company shut its doors for two weeks around Christmas and asked employees not to show up for work that Coe, who just bought a house in Issaquah, saw the writing on the wall. He casually began searching for new work, spending hours on Internet job sites such as Monster.com. The job hunting process, however, took on added pressure in early February when Coe and 23 others were given pink slips and two-week severance packages.

The former salesman at RealNetworks and Xerox Corp. is stressed.

Most of Coe's personal savings went into remodeling his newly purchased house, including a $6,000 carpet. In addition to house payments, other bills are adding up.

His wife's salary as a teacher helps. But Coe quickly points out, "You know what teachers make." The couple also has a young child to support.

"What you have here is a highly motivated person who needs to find something now," Coe says.

The job-hunting process is somewhat clouded by thoughts of his past experiences at DocuTouch, his first time working at an Internet start-up.

"Here I am, a cocky, arrogant sales guy who is the eternal optimist," says Coe. "Being laid off does make you question your abilities."

Coe is not letting ego get in the way, however, and says that life goes on. He has met with several companies and has been called back for second and third interviews with a couple of firms.

Still, he says, "Until you get that job, it is certainly stressful."

J.P. Miller
Kindred
Age: 31
Position: Facilities purchasing manager
Laid off: Dec. 7

Dec. 7, 2000, is a day that will live in infamy for J.P. Miller.

OK. Maybe not that bad.

But the 31-year-old purchasing manager is still reeling from the bomb that was dropped on him and 11 other workers at Kindred Communications that day.

Called into one of the Internet consulting company's conference rooms, Miller was notified that his services were no longer needed at the Bellevue company. He was paid for 2 1/2 weeks of vacation, given a last paycheck and promised a week of severance pay.

Then, after a cordial meeting with the owners and a brief instruction session with the information systems director the following week, Miller packed up his gear and left.

Now, 2 1/2 months later, the Queen Anne resident is still waiting for the severance check to arrive.

"Last time I spoke to them, they said they were hoping to pay it before May," says Miller, who is collecting unemployment but says money is starting "to run a little low."

He is cutting back on expenses, going only to matinee movies and skipping restaurants.

"I am not going out to eat anymore. I am not buying any luxury items, and I pretty much walk everywhere," he says.

The job-search process has been slow with only one call from an employment agency in the past month and a half. That job, he says, was filled by the time he called back. A trip to last month's Pink Slip party at the I-Spy nightclub turned up few leads.

"It is kind of like nothing is safe," he says.

But, in one respect, Miller is lucky. About a half dozen of his buddies have been laid off from companies like Amazon.com, Nordstrom.com and HomeGrocer.com in the past six months, so he says, "At least I have a lot of company."

Peter Richards
Infospace
Age: 31
Position: Director of advertising technology
Laid off: Feb. 5

At 2:15 on Monday, Feb. 5, Peter Richards received an e-mail requesting his presence at the Bellevue DoubleTree Hotel fifteen minutes later.

Walking to the parking garage in the InfoSpace headquarters, Richards saw a group of security guards milling about. By the time he arrived at the hotel he knew he was losing his job.

"It was kind of like the gas chamber," says Richards, describing the mood at the hotel. "You walked in and signed your name. You knew what was coming."

Richards, one of the first 20 employees hired at the company, couldn't believe he was being laid off. He says he had positive job performance evaluations and was one of the few employees who understood the intricacies of the company's online advertising system.

Like the 20 or so other employees in the room, Richards was handed a severance package by the human resources director and then instructed to return to InfoSpace the following Saturday to retrieve personal items.

A total of 250 people lost their jobs in the layoff.

"It was a humbling experience. It was a slap in the face," says Richards, whose brother, also an executive at InfoSpace, filed a lawsuit against the company in December over a disputed stock option package.

Richards still believes his firing was retribution for his brother's lawsuit. He has hired a lawyer to explore his options.

An InfoSpace spokesman said the company does not discuss individual layoffs.

Meanwhile, the pink slip could not have come at a worse time. In addition to losing his salary, Richards forfeited stock options. His wife had a baby last week and a remodeling project at his home in southeast Bellevue is in jeopardy.

is it risky to take a health test? After a layoff

Dear Annie: I lost my job in a restructuring in early 2008, and have spent most of the time since then training for a new career. I'm still covered by COBRA, so I have health insurance now, but that will expire in a couple of months, so I'll have to go get my own insurance. My family has a history of Huntington's Disease - my father, grandfather, and an uncle all had it or have it now - and I would like to get the genetic test that shows whether I have the defective gene that causes this terrible illness. Knowing one way or the other would help me plan better for things like how much retirement income I might need to cope with extra medical expenses, or how heavily to invest in long-term care insurance. Here's my question: If I get the test and it comes out positive, can insurers turn me down for medical insurance? -Just James

Dear James: Your question is certainly a timely one. Millions of people have already undergone genetic testing for a variety of hereditary conditions, including breast cancer, colon cancer, Huntington's Disease, and, in expectant moms, Down's Syndrome. Research on the human genome is speeding along and will make many more choices widely available before long, including genetic tests for heart disease and diabetes.

Last spring, without much fanfare, Congress passed a law called GINA (for Genetic Information Nondiscrimination Act), scheduled to go into effect this year, that's designed to help people in your position. It prohibits health insurers from:

  • Requesting or requiring that you (or a family member) take a genetic test.
  • Asking whether you have ever had genetic testing.
  • Requesting, requiring, or purchasing genetic information for underwriting purposes or prior to your enrollment in an insurance plan.
  • Using or disclosing genetic information for the purpose of deciding whether to insure you or for setting the premium you pay.

GINA also bans employers and labor unions from taking certain actions as a result of genetic information. For instance, if you did take a test for Huntington's and it turned up positive, an employer who somehow found out about it couldn't legally refuse to hire or promote you because of it, nor could they pay you less than they would if your test had come out differently.

An earlier law known as HIPAA (for Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act), passed in 1996, already protected employees enrolled in group health plans from having their genes held against them. But HIPAA didn't specifically address the plight of people who are not covered by a group plan.

"GINA closes a gap that HIPAA left open. The people it will really help are those who have lost their jobs and must seek individual coverage," notes Joanne Hustead, a senior health compliance specialist at the Segal Company (www.segalco.com), an employee-benefits and human resources consulting firm. "Lots of people spend their careers going back and forth between group and individual insurance, with COBRA in between. For them, these are important protections."

Hustead adds that GINA also strengthens the genetic-information provisions of HIPAA for people in group plans. For example, the newer law prohibits insurers from raising premiums or contributions for a whole group based on genetic information about any member of the group. GINA also has teeth that HIPAA lacked: The newer law gives the U.S. Department of Labor the authority to impose fines on employers whose insurance plans violate the genetic confidentiality provisions of HIPAA or GINA. The fines can be as high as $100 per day for each participant in a group plan, which in a large company can quickly add up to a hefty sum.

For group policies, GINA starts to kick in at the start of any plan year beginning or renewing after May 21. (For a company whose insurance plan is on a July 1 enrollment year, for instance, GINA takes effect July 1, 2009.) For non-group policies, such as you will be getting when your COBRA runs out, GINA takes effect May 21 and applies to all individual policies - even those that were already purchased and in effect before May 21. You may want to get tested for the Huntington's gene on or after May 22, just to be absolutely sure that GINA covers you. Here's hoping your test results show you don't need GINA at all.

Job-Killing Recession Racks Up More Layoff Victims

WASHINGTON — The recession is killing jobs at an alarming pace, with tens of thousands of new layoffs announced Monday by some of the biggest names in American business _ Pfizer, Caterpillar and Home Depot.

More pink slips, pay freezes and other hits are expected to slam workers in the months ahead as companies desperately look for ways to survive.

"We're just seeing the tip of the iceberg _ the big firms," said Rebecca Braeu, economist at John Hancock Financial Services. "There's certainly other firms beneath them that will lay off workers as quickly or even quicker."

Looking ahead, economists predicted a net loss of at least 2 million jobs _ possibly more _ this year even if President Barack Obama's $825 billion package of increased government spending and tax cuts is enacted. Last year, the economy lost a net 2.6 million jobs, the most since 1945, though the labor force has grown significantly since then.

The unemployment rate, now at a 16-year high of 7.2 percent, could hit 10 percent or higher later this year or early next year, under some analysts' projections.

Obama called on Congress Monday to speedily enact his recovery plan, warning that the nation can't afford "distractions" or "delays."

With the recession expected to drag on through much of this year, more damage will be inflicted on both companies and workers.

The mounting toll was visible Monday as roughly 40,000 more U.S. workers got the grim news.

Pharmaceutical giant Pfizer Inc., which is buying rival drugmaker Wyeth in a $68 billion deal, and Sprint Nextel Corp., the country's third-largest wireless provider, said they each will slash 8,000 jobs.

Home Depot Inc., the biggest home improvement retailer in the U.S., will get rid of 7,000 jobs, and General Motors Corp. said it will cut 2,000 jobs at plants in Michigan and Ohio because of slow sales.

"We are seeing no improvement in labor market conditions," said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets Economics. "This year could be as bad as last year in terms of layoffs."

In response to deteriorating business conditions, Caterpillar Inc., the world's largest maker of mining and construction equipment, disclosed nearly 20,000 job cuts, most of which already have been made. They include 5,000 new layoffs of white collar workers, which will occur globally by the end of March.

Earlier actions included the elimination of 2,500 Caterpillar workers through a buyout offer announced in December, the termination of about 8,000 contract and temp agency workers, and the reduction of 4,000 full-time factory workers through firings and buyouts.

Texas Instruments Inc., which makes chips for cell phones and other gadgets, will cut 3,400 jobs due to slumping demand. The Dallas-based company said Monday it will slash 12 percent of its work force _ 1,800 jobs through layoffs and another 1,600 through voluntary retirements and departures. And Brooks Automation Inc. said it plans to get rid of 350 jobs, or 20 percent of its work force. It will be the second round of cuts for Brooks, which makes software and equipment for chip manufacturers.

Oilfield services provider Halliburton Co. said it will eliminate jobs in markets particularly hard hit by the recession, though it didn't provide details. Its larger rival Schlumberger Ltd. said last week it will cut up to 5,000 jobs worldwide in the first half of 2009 and consider further reductions this spring.

The flurry of layoffs comes on the heels of similar action by big-name companies just last week.

Microsoft Corp. said it will slash up to 5,000 jobs over the next 18 months. Intel Corp. said it will cut up to 6,000 manufacturing jobs. And United Airlines parent UAL Corp. said it would get rid of 1,000 jobs, on top of 1,500 axed late last year.

And there's no end in sight. In a survey by the National Association for Business Economics, 39 percent of forecasters predicted job reductions through attrition or "significant" layoffs over the next six months, up from 32 percent in the previous survey in October. Around 45 percent in the current survey anticipated no change in hiring plans. About 17 percent thought hiring would increase.

A new report by the placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas found that companies are often turning to a creative combination of measures to cut costs _ beyond layoffs. Those measures include pay freezes or reductions, forced vacations, travel cutbacks and the elimination of year-end bonuses.

"Many companies cannot cut their payrolls as deeply as they have in previous downturns, simply because they did not do as much hiring during the most recent expansion," said John Challenger, president of the firm. "As a result, they are forced to find alternative ways to keep costs down."

Not all the economic news was as grim Monday. Sales of previously owned homes and a separate barometer of economic activity each logged unexpected gains in December. But economists didn't view them as signs of improvement.

"Keep the party hats in boxes and the Champagne in the cellar," said Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group. "It's one month's set of data and they tell us little about the future."

Economists said the uptick in home sales was due to sinking prices spurring buyers. In the other report, a government-influenced balloon in the nation's money supply largely affected the outcome.

Wall Street closed moderately higher. The Dow Jones industrials rose 38.47,or 0.48 percent, to 8,116.03, after briefly moving into negative territory.

The National Association of Realtors said sales of existing homes rose 6.5 percent to an annual rate of 4.74 million last month. Buyers took advantage of dramatically lower prices, especially in distressed states like California, Florida and Nevada, where foreclosures are soaring.

The nationwide median sales price sank to $175,400, down 15.3 percent from a year ago. That marked the biggest annual drop on records going back to 1968. The median is the middle point, where half the homes sell for more and half for less.

For all of last year, existing-home sales totaled 4.9 million, down more than 13 percent from the previous year, and the lowest since 1997.

Meanwhile, the Conference Board's monthly forecast of economic activity rose 0.3 percent in December. But that pickup was influenced mainly by federal efforts to ease the credit crisis, which caused the supply of money to expand. If the jump in the money supply were excluded, the board's index would have dropped sharply, economists said.

The national economy, meanwhile, is continuing to backslide.

Many analysts predict the economy will have contracted at a pace of 5.4 percent in the fourth quarter when the government releases that report Friday. If they are correct, that would mark the worst performance since a 6.4 percent drop in the first quarter of 1982. The economy is still contracting now _ at a pace of around 4 percent, according to some projections.

Steps to life after a layoff

She didn't waste time. When Becky Johnson Sabin, a 37-year-old Sacramento communications manager, was laid off from her job with Teichert Construction in October, she decided to leap into whatever might come next in her career.

"I skipped denial and anger and went straight to acceptance and knowing something better was out there for me," Sabin says.

Really, how emotionally healthy. And what a good role model for other people who are frightened by the all-too-real possibility of losing their jobs in the current gloomy economic climate.

You know who you are: state workers and high-tech whiz kids alike; wage slaves as well as top-tier managers; the young who don't have much work experience and the old who worry they have too much. In the public and private sectors, in blue-collar work and white-collar jobs, at almost every level of the workforce, job security is nothing to take for granted these days.

Clearly, living through job loss has become a new lifestyle, albeit one that most people would never choose, since it brings with it alarming worst-case scenarios like losing both health benefits and home.

Still, there's a bit of good news.

"In the long run, there is life after layoff," says Davis career counselor Andrea Weiss.

And in the short run, layoffs don't carry the sting of stigma that they used to. In the worst economy in decades – with 2.5 million people laid off in 2008, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and California's 9.3 percent unemployment rate the highest it's been in 15 years – how could they?

"How do you shift your thinking about your circumstances?" says Rayona Sharpnack, founder and president of the Bay Area's Institute for Women's Leadership. "This is an opportunity to rethink your identity. Most people consider their identity to be what they do instead of who they are.

"What we can control when everything's out of control is how we hold our circumstances."

Facing potential layoffs, you've braced for impact – but maybe you should embrace the possibility of reinvention instead.

Which brings us back to Becky Johnson Sabin, who powered from unemployment to a new job as communications director for Siemens Mobility in an impressive five weeks' time.

"I sent an e-mail to one of my old bosses at Teichert." she says. "I said, 'Thank you for letting me go. It forced me to do something different.' I think it's the only time anyone's ever thanked him for getting laid off."

The nuts and bolts of it

A few practical suggestions on how to survive job loss:

If you think you might be laid off, Nancy Collamer, a Connecticut-based career counselor and author of the e-book "The Layoff Survival Guide," says you should make sure you've already taken home copies of your performance reviews as well as your contact information list, which will be the backbone of a new job search.

"Those things are just good career management," she says.

The day of the layoff, she says, don't get angry at your managers, and don't sign anything.

"I'd ask for 48 to 72 hours to review the paperwork," she says. "Sometimes, employers try to get you to sign a release in exchange for your severance. You're not thinking clearly. Don't sign anything then and there."

Remember that getting laid off isn't personal, suggests Sabin.

"It's just numbers," she says.

So why do so many employers insist on having security escort laid-off workers from the building immediately?

"Some of them are concerned about sabotage," says Collamer. "The more common reason is that they're concerned about what those people will say and do in the office.

"Being escorted from the office leaves people feeling like they've done something criminal. But you have to recognize that it can and does happen."

In the first three days after a layoff, your job is to review your separation package, make sure your spouse and kids are aware of the situation, e-mail your contacts and file for unemployment.

And breathe.

Many career counselors, including Weiss and Collamer, think it's a good idea to take a week or two to mourn what you've lost.

"You go through a grieving process," says Weiss. "You won't be seeing your quote-unquote family that you've spent eight hours a day with for years.

"There's some mental health management that people can do to acknowledge their feelings of being upset, depressed and angry. Stress management is key – getting enough sleep, exercising and blowing off steam."

On the other hand, Sabin started interviewing only two days after her layoff.

"It was a great ego boost to me," she says. "I took it as a good sign that I really am marketable.

"People asked me if I was going to take time to relax. I'll relax when I've earned vacation time. I wasn't getting paid to relax."

If your previous employer offers outplacement services, make good use of the chance to polish your résumé and brush up your interviewing skills.

"People blow that off because they're upset," says Weiss. "But I strongly encourage people to take advantage of it."

Structure the job search

And so to the job search. Sabin says she got up every day, put on good clothes and treated looking for work like a full-time job. Not a bad idea, say the professionals.

"Statistically, very few people find jobs through online job boards," says Collamer. "You have to network and work the system. You've got to put yourself out there. You have to set up a schedule and surround yourself with support.

"The people who are most successful at this put structure into their job search and take steps every day to maintain their emotional well-being."

Not everyone is lucky enough to find work quickly. When Collamer's husband was laid off in 2001 from his high-tech job, his job search took a year. Frustrating, yes. But Collamer says she and her husband now treasure their memories of his time at home with the family.

Says Collamer: "I personally think volunteering is one of the best things you can do when you're laid off. It gives you perspective on your situation and the opportunity to be of value.

"I say to people, 'Don't stop living. There's no reason.' "

3 Keys for Speeding Up Re-Employment - Life After Layoff:

What happened? One day you were working and the next day you were ushered out with a pink slip. What do you do now? Does looking for another position in today's economy overwhelm you? What can you do to ensure future job security?

For a company undergoing restructuring, a layoff is like pruning a tree to stimulate its growth. For you, the downsized employee, a layoff is an involuntary life-altering event. How you cope with it will impact your future employment experiences. Even if you are lucky to get outplacement services, mastery of certain core competencies is a must. To boost layoff recovery, become an expert in the key actions of Connect, Clarify and Commit. To get ahead of the curve, hire an expert like a Career Coach to personally guide you.

Connection

Connection consists of: 1) connecting with yourself, 2) connecting with a career support team, and, of course, 3) connecting with hiring authorities. Let's briefly explore these action steps.

A layoff can be a traumatic experience - in many ways similar to a loved one's death or perhaps a divorce. It is critical to get in touch with your feelings. Let yourself experience the stages of grief (including the pain) as so aptly explained by Elizabeth Kubler-Ross in her book, "On Death and Dying." These stages include shock, denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance. Although you may feel emotions sparked by these stages at any time during the layoff healing process, most individuals will need to go through all six stages to achieve a healthy perspective about re-entering the workplace.

Recovering from layoff shock can be a lonely process, so assemble a career support team to act as your personal advisory board. This team should include your Career Coach, a trusted and qualified professional who will support your efforts to discover where you can improve, what you want to change, and how to optimize your job search for re-employment success. Who else belongs on this team? Family, friends and colleagues…some, perhaps, experiencing a layoff, too. A note of caution: the purpose of a support team is one of positive energy and forward movement, not an ongoing "pity party" - so choose your support team members wisely!

As you move forward, hiring authorities will become your connection focus. Interviews, and how to get them, will become your main goal. This is where preparation becomes critical. Know your work history inside out. Develop an articulate way to verbalize your accomplishments and how they added value to your past employer's bottom line. Practice your personal "unique selling proposition" or 30-second commercial to use in networking situations, telephone interviews and face-to-face meetings. Role-play interview situations with your Career Coach to acquire a comfort-level in telling your "stories" to potential employers.

Clarification

What must be clarified as part of your reemployment process? A layoff offers you time to examine your career history, career path and career goals. Are your values in alignment with your career? Values may be personal, spiritual or professional in nature. If they are out of sync, career satisfaction will elude you. A lot has been said recently about values, or lack of, in the workplace. Only when your values mesh with your company's culture will you be happy. Only when you find a way to work your passion will you jump out of bed in the morning with an "I can't wait to get to work" attitude.

Not only review your values, but also evaluate your skills and interests. With assistance from a Career Coach, access assessments to explore possible shifts in your career direction. Don't assume that just because you have worked in the same industry for the past 10 or 15 years you are stuck there. (Career Coach note: I left a 12-year career to begin another in the career management field where I have been working my passion for the past 17 years.)

Examine your educational background…what would you have to do to brush up on stale skills or retrain for a new field? What interests do you have that could be transformed into a rewarding career? Let curiosity, not fear, motivate your exploration. We live in an ever-changing world where companies struggle to maintain profitability. They seek employees who embrace change and drive innovation. We're never too old to learn new things. In fact, learning is a lifelong process. What knowledge areas do you want to expand? How can you lead the cutting-edge of innovation? (Career Coach note: Is now the right time to explore starting your own business?)

Discover where your career values, interests and skills merge, then filter them through business reality…the final clarification prior to launching a career change. Now, and only now, are you ready to write your resume. Your resume must be PERFECT! It will be your primary marketing tool used to get interviews. It will be your brochure, your calling card; it will make your first impression for you. Even if you are a good writer, you may be too close to your own situation to do justice to your resume. Hire a professional resume writer who knows how to position you on paper.

Commitment

Finally, create your action plan and commit to working it. Research companies and job leads, network in professional circles (85% of all positions are secured through networking), develop a system for posting to the job boards and track your results, and use your Career Coach to keep you on course. Now is NOT the time to take a vacation!

Maintain a positive attitude by accepting the past as past; learn from it and let it go! Realize that the job search process in a numbers game…you will have to collect your set of "no's" to get a "yes." Above all else, be true to yourself. Don't accept just any job offer or you will be searching again soon, a victim of the "rebound" syndrome. Remember, job security comes from within you. No one owes you a job…you've learned that lesson, right? Develop a "brand me" approach to your career with you as your own most important product. Then, success will become yours!

February 2009 Month Layoffs

February picked up right where January left off on the layoff front. At the time, we were astonished by the 1,540 laid off during the month - that was more than triple the two preceding months. This month, almost twice as many again have been fired. 2,708 people were fired from major law firms in February (1,104 lawyers, 1,604 staff), compared to 1,540 in January (694 attorneys, 846 staff).

Law firm layoffs have permeated the highest levels of firms and the cuts are getting deeper. Latham & Watkins, DLA Piper, and Allen & Overy not only rank in the top half of the Vault 100, but they were among the firms laying off the largest numbers. Trimming 10% of headcount is becoming de rigeur.

Data and analysis after the jump.

The first noteworthy trend is the aggressive stance the Magic Circle and other UK firms have taken in cutting attorneys. UK firms laid off 471 attorneys out of 916 total, which meant attorneys constituted just over 51% of the headcount.

In the US, however, it was 633 attorneys out of 1,756, or just 36%. Staff are being laid off in the US almost twice as frequently as attorneys. Within the US, California firms laid off 235 attorneys, but only 56 came from New York firms this month.

Tech Layoffs Surge to 300,000 - August 2008 to March 2009


Layoffs in the tech sector are accelerating. It took exactly three weeks for tech layoffs to surge to 300,000, according to our Layoff Tracker. Since late January, when the tracker hit 200,000 layoffs, another 100,000 job eliminations have been announced or completed. In contrast, it took five weeks for layoffs in the tech industry to hit the 200,000 mark, and four months for layoffs to hit 100,000 last December. The total number of layoffs since we began tracking since the financial crisis began in late August is 300,093.

The past few weeks have particularly brutal for the technology space, with substantial layoffs announced by Pioneer (10,000), Cisco (3,000), Panasonic (15,000), NEC (20,000), Electronic Arts (1100) and AOL (700). Even Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal, who both managed to avoid layoffs in the past few months, were forced to make cuts to their workforces. And Google, who was immune to layoffs until late January, continued giving pink-slips in the past three weeks with the company’s exit from radio. Sadly, a few start-ups weren’t able to weather the storm, with eBaum’s World cutting all of its workforce.

Obviously the tech industry is not immune to the current economic climate, and if the past three weeks are any indication, things could still get worse for the tech space before they get better. Maybe that economic stimulus plan will help turn the tide.

Monday, March 23, 2009

Job Losses During Recessions - Chart

Barry Ritholtz provides us with the following chart: Job Losses in Post WWII Recessions

Job Losses During Recessions Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows job losses during recessions from the peak month of employment until jobs recover.

The current recession has had the most job losses and the 2001 recession had the weakest job recovery.

However this graph is not normalized for increases in the work force.

Percent Job Losses During Recessions The second graph (that Barry asked me for) shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms (as opposed to the number of jobs lost).

For the current recession, employment peaked in December 2007, and this recession is about as bad as the 1981 recession in percentage terms at this point.

In the earlier post-war recessions, there were huge swings in manufacturing employment. Now manufacturing is a much smaller percentage of the economy, and the swings aren't as significant because of technological advances. This is the main reason that job losses were larger in those earlier recessions.

Here is Barry's updated post (with another graph). Barry asks: Are recessions taking longer to recover from? The answer appears to be yes. And I expect unemployment to be elevated for some time (even after the economy starts to recover).

The Job Loss Unemployment Syndrome

THE message from reports from the ground is clear. Unemployment in India's industrial and services sectors is on the rise. If earlier growth was being described as ''jobless'', the problem now is that growth that is lower comes with job losses. The recessionary impact that the global financial and economic crisis has had is resulting in huge job losses in various segments of the labour market. However, a reliable aggregate estimate of the extent of increase in unemployment is not available from the official statistical system. Recognising that unemployment is on the rise, the government did make an attempt to estimate the impact of the downturn on employment. On its request, the Labour Bureau conducted a sample survey covering eight sectors (mining, textile & textile garments, metals & metal products, automobile, gems & jewellery, construction, transport and the IT/BPO industry) to arrive at an estimate of job loss. The survey was designed to cover a sample of units employing 10 or more workers, with the sample being drawn from 20 centres in 11 states and union territories.

Finally, 2581 units were covered, of which 1168 were from the textile & garments industry, 752 from metals & metal products, 242 from information technology & business process outsourcing, 132 from automobiles, 104 from gems & jewellery, 103 from transportation, 19 from mining, and 61 from construction. Based on this limited sample, the total employment in all the sectors covered by the survey is estimated to have declined from 16.2 million during September 2008 to 15.7 million during December 2008, implying a job loss of about half a million (Table 1). Given the coverage and methodology of the survey, few believe that this is an acceptable estimate. The actual decline in employment during this period is likely to have been much higher. Moreover, the decline is likely to have occurred over a much longer period.

However, the survey does suggest that employment fell in every month during the period studied. After September 2008 employment in all industries declined at an average rate of 1.01 per cent per month. A comparison of employment in export and non-export units indicates that employment declined at an average monthly rate of 1.13 per cent in the case of the former, as opposed to 0.81 per cent in the latter (Table 2), pointing to the direct role of the global slowdown.

Table 1: Trends in Average Employment, India (million)

Period

Average Employment

%age change

September,08

16.2

October,08

16

-1.21

November,08

15.9

-0.74

December,08

15.7

-1.12

Average Monthly change

-1.01

Source: Labour Bureau, Ministry of Labour and Employment

Table 2: Percentage change in Employment of Exporting and Non-Exporting units

Period

Exporting Units

Non- Exporting Units

Overall

October,08

-1.3

-1.05

-1.21

November,08

-0.45

-1.24

-0.74

December,08

-1.66

-0.15

-1.12

Average Monthly change

-1.13

-0.81

-1.01

Source: Labour Bureau, Ministry of Labour and Employment

ONLY WHITE COLLAR

JOBS IN FOCUS

With aggregate data being limited, the assessment of and response to rising unemployment has been driven by episodic evidence of job loss highlighted by the media. However, given the nature of India's boom and the pattern of recent growth it is the loss of white collar jobs that garners attention from the media. This was evident when Jet Airways, beleaguered by high oil prices, increased competition and falling demand, laid off around a thousand employees. The response to the announcement was so adverse that the company was forced to go back on its decision and focus instead on restructuring its operations and obtaining concessions from the government to reduce its losses.

Similarly, other labour market developments that have received and are receiving media attention are evidence of sluggishness in on-campus recruitment from elite institutions like the IITs and IIMs, lay-offs and redundancies in software services and business process outsourcing firms and evidence of job losses in the Gulf countries. Much less attention has been paid to job losses of informally employed blue collar workers in the organised sector or those dependent on wage- or self-employment in unorganised manufacturing, services and agriculture.

The attention devoted to white collar jobs in select sectors is partly understandable, given that the crisis originated in and affected most of all the financial sector in the source countries. Moreover, even in India the crisis hit the financial sector first, being transmitted through the exodus of foreign financial capital that withdrew from the country in order to meet commitments or cover losses incurred by these firms in the source countries. This impacted immediately on white collar workers employed in the financial sector. Predictably, the crisis in the developed countries also affected workers in the software and IT-enabled Services (ITeS) sector, because the crisis-afflicted financial industry in the developed countries was an important outsourcer of business to India. Software and ITeS, which were among the fastest growing exports, were also likely to be the most affected in the wake of a developed country downturn. Here too the victims of job losses were sections considered part of the white collar elite.

IMPACT OF

THE CRISIS

However, there were more routes than these through which the crisis was transmitted to India. One, for example, was the direct impact of the global trade slowdown on traditional export industries like textiles and garments, gems and jewellery, leather and carpets. According to the IMF, the growth of exports from emerging and developing economies is likely to fall from a positive 9.6 per cent in 2007 and 5.6 per cent in 2008 to a negative 0.8 per cent in 2009. It is small recompense that the rate of growth is projected to rebound sharply in 2010. Such projections are suspect, since the IMF has made it a habit of putting out optimistic projections and then revising them downwards. In fact, the 2009 slump could prove sharper than currently predicted. With traditional exports still dominating India's manufactured exports, these industries were bound to be affected most, as is clearly true in Surat's diamond cutting industry where low wage workers cater to the world market for an expensive luxury.

Besides this, the recession is bound to affect demand, capacity utilisation and employment in a wide range of manufacturing industries catering to the domestic market. Moreover, growth in a number of areas such as the housing sector, automobiles and consumer durables had been driven by credit-financed purchases encouraged by easy liquidity and low interest rates. The curtailment of credit provision by a damaged or cautious financial sector would further reduce demand, increase inventories and lead to job losses in industries directly or indirectly catering to such credit-financed investment and consumption. Influenced by these trends and the second-order of effects of contraction in these areas on demand for other manufacturing sectors, there will be a wider range of industries and segments of the labour market that will be affected by the ongoing crisis.

Finally, as a result of all these developments, the demand for agricultural commodities and the viability of crop production is being increasingly eroded. But with the government confident that the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) has generated additional employment in rural areas, the impact that the crisis is having on employment in agriculture and non-agriculture in the rural areas is being underplayed. The budget estimates that the NREGS delivered 13.88 million person days of additional employment in 2008-09. But this employment in public works, which definitely needs to be celebrated and expanded, need not have fully or even substantially neutralised the loss of routine or regular employment in rural India, however limited or underpaid such employment is. The NREGS is a demand-driven scheme and the sharp increase in employment generated through the scheme need not only be because the previously unemployed opted for it, but because those losing jobs are turning to it as an alternative. If so, the urgency of increasing allocations substantially is obvious.

GOVT’S LACK

OF URGENCY

Overall, therefore, the unfolding crisis is resulting in significant job losses across the country. What is surprising, however, is the lack of any sense of urgency on the part of the government in the face of this crisis. In fact, the initial response was that since the Indian financial sector was not significantly exposed to the sub-prime mortgage crisis and the toxic assets associated with it, the crisis would not impact India. Subsequently, while it was accepted that India was indeed being affected, the perception seemed to be that this effect was largely because of the liquidity squeeze and credit decline that resulted from the exodus of foreign capital from the stock market. The government's response was thus focused on increasing liquidity in the system and reducing interest rates. The first sign of the government's recognition that there was a slump in demand that needed direct action came only in December 2008. Unfortunately, the resulting response was limited, so that the economy and employment are still slipping.

Yet, even as recently as at the time of the presentation of the interim budget in mid-February, the government seemed to be complacent. Pranab Mukherjee's budget speech referred to the effect of the crisis as follows: ''A crisis of such magnitude in developed countries is bound to have an impact around the world. Most emerging market economies have slowed down significantly. India too has been affected. For the first nine months of the current year, the growth rate of exports has come down to 17.1 per cent. According to the latest figures available, the industrial production has fallen by 2 per cent year-on-year basis in December 2008. In these difficult times, when most economies are struggling to stay afloat, a healthy 7.1 per cent rate of GDP growth still makes India the second fastest growing economy in the world.'' In sum, the view seems to be, we are not untouched but are faring relatively well all the same.

A consequence of such complacence is that the interim budget chose to avoid taking any further steps of significance to counter the crisis. Such a state of denial is possible only because public resentment at the effects of the crisis is just building up and the government is not under pressure to address the crisis seriously. Despite such an explanation, the attitude of the UPA government is puzzling. With an election nearing and an economic crisis offering the justification and therefore an opportunity to the government to spend its way to victory, it is surprising that the State is still seized by fiscal conservatism.

IN A STATE OF

DISCONNECT

There could be two explanations for this. The first could be that the Congress party is actually in a state of disconnect, having lost its links with the grass roots and increasingly unconscious of developments on the ground. With the party having to depend on the prestige of one family and its scions to garner it votes this is not unlikely. The situation may be worsened by media that are disconnected and focused merely on the stock markets and India's attractiveness to foreign capital. In the event, the party and UPA government may not even be cognizing the dimensions of the unfolding crisis. Unfortunately for it, there is no organised, vocal force at the moment strong enough to make it recognise reality. This could mean that a voiceless electorate may be forced to respond in the coming elections with a mandate that treats the ''Bharat Nirman'' slogan of the current UPA government with the same contempt it gave its predecessor's ''India Shining'' campaign.

The second explanation could be that the levers of the Congress have been seized by fiscally conservative neo-liberal economic ideologues and cynical political satraps, neither of whom have an inkling of either the current electoral strength of the Congress or of what needs to be done to win the forthcoming elections. It is possible that long years of destruction of the mass mobilisation infrastructure of the party may have denuded it of those who can forcefully make the case for alternative policies that can meet the aspirations of a beleaguered electorate. In the event, the fiscal conservatives and neo-liberals may have come to dominate the economic discourse, making a case for reversing the foreign capital drain through more liberalisation and offering concessions to private capital, rather than creating the domestic political space for a national revival and rejuvenation plan.

In either case the loss is national, since there are no Left allies to force the hands of the Congress. This was what happened in the case of the rural employment guarantee scheme, which is now being touted as a flagship scheme that has helped India beat the recession and praised even by those who had bitterly opposed it earlier. Without some pressure for more such policies, job losses will continue, attributed by industry to ''attrition'' and cynical analysts to the inevitable downsizing needed to enhance competitiveness. It is possible that once again a surprise mandate may force a course correction, but that mandate is more than three months away. The intervening period can be one where the economy and mass livelihoods suffer damage of a kind that can take too long to repair.